Widespread synchronous decline of Mediterranean

Nature Plants (2023)Cite this article

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Large-scale, abrupt ecosystem change in direct response to climate extremes is a critical but poorly documented phenomenon1. Yet, recent increases in climate-induced tree mortality raise concern that some forest ecosystems are on the brink of collapse across wide environmental gradients2,3. Here we assessed climatic and productivity trends across the world’s five Mediterranean forest ecosystems from 2000 to 2021 and detected a large-scale, abrupt forest browning and productivity decline in Chile (>90% of the forest in <100 days), responding to a sustained, acute drought. The extreme dry and warm conditions in Chile, unprecedented in the recent history of all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are akin to those projected to arise in the second half of the century4. Long-term recovery of this forest is uncertain given an ongoing decline in regional water balance. This dramatic plummet of forest productivity may be a spyglass to the future for other Mediterranean ecosystems.

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The codes generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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A.M., S.G, A.L. and R.G. thank ANID/FONDAP/15110009, and A.M. thanks ANID Postdoctoral Fondecyt project 3210101. F.S. thanks ANID grants FB210006 and ACE210006 to the Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB). A.M. and J.C. acknowledges the support of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101037419, and J.C. acknowledges Postdoctoral Fondecyt project 3210311. S.G. thanks FORPES project PID2019-106908RA-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 from MICINN, Spain. J.F.O. was supported by the Chilean Foundation of Science and Technology (FONDECYT) Grant 11191147. We also thank the Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES) project PIA/BASAL FB0002. S.V. thanks ANID no. 9219/2022 Concurso Subvención a la Instalación en la Academia, Code 85220080.

Laboratorio de Ecología del Paisaje y Conservación, Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile

Alejandro Miranda

Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), Santiago, Chile

Alejandro Miranda, Susana Gómez-González, Rayen Mentler, Antonio Lara & René Garreaud

Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA

Alexandra D. Syphard

Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR, USA

Alexandra D. Syphard

Institute of Integrative Biology, Department of Environment Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland

Miguel Berdugo

Departamento de Industria, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana, Santiago, Chile

Jaime Carrasco

Departamento de Biología-IVAGRO, Universidad de Cádiz, Puerto Real, Spain

Susana Gómez-González

Center for Fire and Socioecological Systems (FireSES), Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

Susana Gómez-González

Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de La Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

Juan F. Ovalle

Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago, Chile

Juan F. Ovalle & Marcelo D. Miranda

Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de La Serena, La Serena, Chile

Cristian A. Delpiano & Francisco A. Squeo

Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB), Santiago, Chile

Cristian A. Delpiano & Francisco A. Squeo

Departamento de Química y Biología, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad de Atacama, Copiapó, Chile

Solange Vargas

Facultad de Agronomía e Ingeniería Forestal, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

Marcelo D. Miranda

Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, Mansfield, CT, USA

Cynnamon Dobbs

Instituto de Conservación, Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile

Antonio Lara

Fundación Centro de los Bosques Nativos FORECOS, Valdivia, Chile

Antonio Lara

Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile

René Garreaud

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A.M., R.G., A.D.S., M.B., A.L. and S.G.-G. conceptualized the project. A.M., R.G. and J.C. developed the methodology. A.M., R.G., R.M., J.C. and M.D.M. curated data. A.M., R.G., R.M., J.C. and M.D.M. conducted formal analysis. A.M., R.G., R.M. and M.D.M. performed visualization. A.M., R.G., F.A.S., M.D.M., J.F.O., C.A.D. and A.L. acquired funding. A.M., J.F.O., C.A.D. and S.V. administered the project. A.M., R.G., A.D.S., M.B., M.D.M., S.G. and A.L. wrote the original draft, which was reviewed and edited by A.M., R.G., J.F.O., A.D.S., M.B., F.A.S., C.A.D., S.V., M.D.M., C.D., S.G. and A.L.

Correspondence to Alejandro Miranda.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Nature Plants thanks Víctor Resco de Dios and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Methods, Figs.1–4 and Tables 1–3.

Annual regional mean NDVI for all MTEs.

The 1901–2020 annual precipitation anomalies for all MTEs. The 1901–2020 11-year mean-precipitation anomalies for all MTEs. The 1901–2020 11-year mean-maximum temperature anomalies for all MTEs.

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Miranda, A., Syphard, A.D., Berdugo, M. et al. Widespread synchronous decline of Mediterranean-type forest driven by accelerated aridity. Nat. Plants (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-023-01541-7

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Received: 11 July 2022

Accepted: 12 September 2023

Published: 16 October 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-023-01541-7

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